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FXUS06 KWBC 131923
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 13 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 23 2023
THE 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AS DEPICTED BY TODAY’S WEIGHTED BLEND OF
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH
COUPLET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH WEAKER ANOMALIES DOWNSTREAM. POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO DEPICT THE EMERGENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INDICATIVE OF INCREASED MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
A THERMAL LOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN
FAVORS CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WEAK PRECIPITATION
ANOMALIES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS EXPANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS, SO DO PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, EXCEEDING 70%. AS NOTED, THE LARGEST CHANGE IS FOR THE
NORTHWEST CONUS, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
INCREASED FROM BELOW 40% FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO ABOVE 50% FOR MOST OF IDAHO, AS
WELL AS ADJACENT AREAS. THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST ARE FAVORED TO BE
NEAR-NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TILT
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.
WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND STRONG
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM
PACIFIC ONSHORE FLOW IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS, EXCEEDING
50% FOR EASTERN OREGON, SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL IDAHO. WITH WEAKER
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ELSEWHERE, MODELED DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION
ANOMALIES ARE PRETTY SMALL. HOWEVER, INCREASED MONSOON ACTIVITY RESULTS IN
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND
A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. CONTINUED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TILT ODDS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, MUCH OF THE
STATE IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURE, OFFSET BY WEAK
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS RESULTING IN WEAKER PROBABILITIES
ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 21 - 27 2023
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE 8-14 DAY TIME PERIOD DEPICT
INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, SMALLER HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND A PERSISTENCE OF BOTH THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THIS RESULTS IN
EXPANDED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, A
REDUCTION IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND
CONTINUED NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
U.S.
AS THE DOMINANT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS BEGINS TO
MOVE WESTWARD, SO TOO DOES THE FOCUS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES,
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHEST, EXCEEDING 50%, OVER THE GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND WESTERN
MONTANA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
AND WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE GOING DOWN, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN CONUS, ALSO EXCEEDING 50% PROBABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FLORIDA. NEAR-NORMAL TO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, THE
NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, WITH CONTINUED WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CONTINUING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST, PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON, AS
WELL AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. AS THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON IS FAVORED TO
STRENGTHEN, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, EXCEEDING 40% FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA. VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS
AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE NORTHEAST.
FOR ALASKA, CONTINUED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MAINLAND
RESULT IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE,
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS INCREASED PRECIPITATION
AND A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA RESULTING FROM INCREASED MOISTURE DUE
TO THE MID-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY WEAKER ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040623 - 19540727 - 19670726 - 19940724 - 20060629
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040622 - 19900623 - 20060629 - 20030708 - 19670726
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 23 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 21 - 27 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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