071
FXUS01 KWBC 140812
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2023
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 14 2023 - 12Z SUN JUL 16 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO STRETCH FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GULF
COAST; AT LEAST 93 MILLION PEOPLE ARE UNDER EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES AS OF THIS MORNING....
...FRIDAY FEATURES AN EXPANSIVE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
HIGHLIGHTED BY A MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST;
SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SATURDAY REMAINS ACTIVE WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS & STORMS IN
THE EAST; SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
THIS WEEKEND FEATURES NO SHORTAGE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HEADLINES
THAT ARE LED BY STIFLING HEAT, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND SEVERE
WEATHER. SHINING THE SPOTLIGHT ON THE HEAT FIRST, A SEARING HEAT
WAVE IS SET TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, THE GREAT BASIN, AND
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME RECORD HEAT IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, BUT RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPANDS EVEN MORE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 105-115F FROM THE GREAT VALLEY OF CA TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SOME PARTS OF THE DESERT REGION OF SOUTHERN CA,
SOUTHERN NV, AND SOUTHERN AZ COULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS TOP 120F.
FARTHER EAST, OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FROM TEXAS AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO FLORIDA. HEAT INDICES TODAY
LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-110F ON AVERAGE, WITH UP TO 115F
READINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CAST OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
EXPECT SIMILAR HEAT INDICES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SIZZLING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES, MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
WILL REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM, PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RELIEF TO THESE AFFECTED REGIONS. NUMEROUS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE WEST COAST TO SOUTH
FLORIDA, RESULTING IN OVER 93 MILLION AMERICANS BEING PLACED UNDER
ONE OF THESE TWO HEAT-RELATED HAZARDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
SCOPE OF THE HEAT AND ITS IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT HEAT.GOV FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
ELSEWHERE, A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES; ONE IN THE NORTHEAST AND
ANOTHER CROSSING THE NATION'S HEARTLAND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN TERMS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, A FEW SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) HAVE BEEN POSTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH, THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE
NORTHEAST. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF THESE AFFECTED
REGIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MORE SERIOUS MODERATE RISK
(THREAT LEVEL 3/4) IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NY AND CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE COMBINATION OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OVER THE
REGION'S HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS MAKE THEM PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A MARGINAL RISK THAT INCLUDES NOT ONLY AREAS
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, BUT ALSO THE I-95
MEGALOPOLIS FROM RICHMOND/WASHINGTON D.C. TO NYC AND BOSTON.
BY SATURDAY, MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 IS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4). WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT RISK. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK HAS
BEEN ISSUED. FOR THOSE WANTING TO ESCAPE THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND,
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BOTH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SEE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS INJECT SEASONALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FROM CANADA INTO THESE REGIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE. THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS ARE SET TO OCCUR IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S., THE
DAKOTAS, AND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
MULLINAX
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