234
FXUS01 KWBC 152004
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2023
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 16 2023 - 00Z TUE JUL 18 2023
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, CALIFORNIA, AND THE GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST, AND OHIO VALLEY...
A WEAK FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A SECOND
AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALSO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A SECOND AREA OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT, AS MENTIONED
EARLIER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND, CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY
FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
ADDITIONALLY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SECOND FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A
THREAT OF TORNADOES AND HAIL.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN EASTWARD
TO TEXAS WILL EXTEND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BRINGING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES NOT
COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER CALIFORNIA, NEVADA,
ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF TEXAS,
ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA.
IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY
ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. DANGEROUS HEAT MAY CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. ALL-TIME HEAT RECORDS COULD BE
APPROACHED OR REACHED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE
ALL-TIME HEAT RECORDS WOULD LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, MOJAVE DESERT, AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS.
PHOENIX IS ALSO LIKELY TO REGISTER ITS HOTTEST WEEK ON RECORD BY
7-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. TAKE THE HEAT SERIOUSLY AND AVOID TIME
OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH LEVELS THAT POSE A HEALTH RISK
AND ARE POTENTIALLY DEADLY TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING
AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. HEAT IS THE LEADING WEATHER-RELATED
KILLER IN THE U.S..
LASTLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES, AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, PROMPTING AIR QUALITY
WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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