870
FXUS01 KWBC 162022
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2023
VALID 00Z MON JUL 17 2023 - 00Z WED JUL 19 2023
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, CALIFORNIA, AND THE GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST, AND OHIO VALLEY...
A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THEN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS BY TUESDAY.
THE BOUNDARY AND A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND WORK TOGETHER, CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
IN ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, FEW TORNADOES, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF HAIL.
MOREOVER, THE FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT OF
HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
ON MONDAY, FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WYOMING, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT
OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE AREA.
ALSO, ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES OVER
THE LOWER FORTY-EIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SECOND AREA OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF EASTERN FLORIDA,
WITH A THIRD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FOURTH AREA OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND A
FIFTH OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER
THOSE REGIONS.
ON TUESDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WESTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER TWO REGIONS, NORTHEAST AND OHIO/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND A SECOND AREA
OVER OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SECOND AREA OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ON TUESDAY, THE
SECOND AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN EASTWARD
TO WESTERN TEXAS WILL EXTEND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTO PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW
TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, AND LOUISIANA AND PARTS
OF TEXAS, ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, OKLAHOMA, AND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA.
IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. DANGEROUS HEAT MAY
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. ALL-TIME HEAT
RECORDS COULD BE APPROACHED OR REACHED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ALL-TIME HEAT RECORDS WOULD LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, MOJAVE DESERT, AND GREAT
BASIN REGIONS. PHOENIX IS ALSO LIKELY TO REGISTER ITS HOTTEST WEEK
ON RECORD BY 7-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. TAKE THE HEAT SERIOUSLY
AND AVOID TIME OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH LEVELS THAT POSE
A HEALTH RISK AND ARE POTENTIALLY DEADLY TO ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. HEAT IS THE LEADING
WEATHER-RELATED KILLER IN THE U.S..
LASTLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES, AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, PROMPTING AIR QUALITY
WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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