752
FXUS01 KWBC 211953
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 22 2023 - 00Z MON JUL 24 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER NEW ENGLAND,
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SOUTHWEST, AND THE
GREAT BASIN; A SECOND AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO TEXAS...
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. ON SATURDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER NEW ENGLAND.
FURTHERMORE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA EASTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
SIMILARLY, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REDUCES SLIGHTLY TO A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HAZARDS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, CREATING LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ALSO, ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE, ON SUNDAY, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING HOT
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND
HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, IDAHO, EASTERN
OREGON, ARIZONA, SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS,
LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS, MOST OF
MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA.
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO A
DANGEROUS, LONG-LIVED, AND RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WAVE THAT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW
DESERT AREAS, WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN HOT, BUT RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
ADDITIONALLY, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
WIDESPREAD 105-115 DEGREE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
SOUTHEAST, AND GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. RELIEF
ARRIVES BY SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. TAKE THE HEAT SERIOUSLY AND AVOID EXTENDED
TIME OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL REACH LEVELS
THAT WOULD POSE A HEALTH RISK TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING
AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
VERY LITTLE RELIEF. HEAT IS THE LEADING WEATHER-RELATED KILLER IN
THE U.S.
ZIEGENFELDER
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