114
FXUS01 KWBC 222000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2023
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 23 2023 - 00Z TUE JUL 25 2023
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SOUTHWEST, AND THE
GREAT BASIN; A SECOND AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST...
...THERE ARE AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A FRONT
OVER THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, CREATING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AND UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING HOT
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND
HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, IDAHO,
EASTERN OREGON, AND ARIZONA AND A SECOND AREA OVER PART THE
WESTERN GULF COAST, SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI,
SOUTHERN ALABAMA, SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA.
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO A
DANGEROUS, LONG-LIVED, AND RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WAVE THAT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW
DESERT AREAS, WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN HOT BUT RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY,
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE WIDESPREAD
105-115 DEGREE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, SOUTHEAST, AND
GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. RELIEF ARRIVES BY SUNDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
TAKE THE HEAT SERIOUSLY AND AVOID EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD POSE A
HEALTH RISK TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE
HYDRATION. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE VERY LITTLE RELIEF.
HEAT IS THE LEADING WEATHER-RELATED KILLER IN THE U.S.
LASTLY, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR
QUALITY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROMPTING AIR
QUALITY WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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