306
FXUS01 KWBC 232000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2023
VALID 00Z MON JUL 24 2023 - 00Z WED JUL 26 2023
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN CAROLINAS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SOUTHWEST, NORTHERN
PLAINS, THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF TEXAS, THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA,
AND THE GREAT BASIN...
...THERE ARE AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND HAIL.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THEREFORE, THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, ON SUNDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, ARIZONA, AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST, CREATING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID
RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF UTAH, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND
ARIZONA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, DEVELOPING
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE, ON TUESDAY,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT BASIN.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING HOT
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HOT LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS NOT COOLING OFF OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SOUTHWEST, NORTHERN
PLAINS, SOUTHERN THIRD OF TEXAS, THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND
THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY HAS REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES.
LASTLY, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR
QUALITY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROMPTING AIR
QUALITY WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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