485
FXUS01 KWBC 240801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUL 24 2023 - 12Z WED JUL 26 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, GREAT
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
...CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE AIR QUALITY ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST,
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS TODAY. SOME ELEVATED RAIN RATES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE HIGH TOLERANCE FOR RAINFALL/RUNOFF LOCALLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL ALSO
DIRECT CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN TODAY, WHERE AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
STORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL DIRECT PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
FRONTAL FORCING AND UPSLOPING MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN TOTALS OVER
THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN
EFFECT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A STAUNCH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE GENERATING ANOMALOUS
HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AS WELL AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S-110S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO 80S WILL LIKELY TIE OR BREAK RECORDS IN MANY PARTS OF THE WEST.
LOWS AS HIGH AS THE 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
WHERE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS OTHER PARTS
OF THE WEST, INCLUDING THE GREAT BASIN, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
GREAT PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE RISKS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN RESPECTIVELY DUE TO DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS IN THE 80S WHICH MAY BREAK RECORDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE ANOMALOUS HEAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK.
KEBEDE
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