931
FXUS06 KWBC 241931
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JULY 24 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2023
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE
NORTH AMERICAN REGION FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AMONG THE GEFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. MODELS PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA THAT EXTEND ACROSS ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST IS PREDICTED IN TODAY’S MANUAL BLEND TO
INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S AUTO BLEND OF 6-10 DAY PERIOD
ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, EXCEPT FOR PARTS
OF THE WEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF ECMWF AND GEFS
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80
PERCENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF REFORECAST TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WHICH HAS
SHOWN GREATER SKILL OVER THIS REGION THAN THE GEFS REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THAT CONSISTENTLY HAS FORECAST WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED
TROUGH.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF ALASKA AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND
EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO MAINE, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION, UNDER A PREDICTED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
SOME AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY, 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH
WEAKER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. WEAK
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT
UNDER A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST
FOR WEEK-2 IS OVERALL SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
BUT WITH WEAKER ANOMALIES AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, FOLLOWING THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GUIDANCE FROM THE
ECMWF. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST, UNDER
A PERSISTENT TROUGH, DESPITE A WEAKER AMPLITUDE 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST.
WITH INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE DOMAIN. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF ALASKA, WHERE MOST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE CONSISTENT. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMIC MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL IS
FAVORED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
REGION, WHERE THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
FORECASTS OF WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940726 - 19670713 - 20030722 - 19530723 - 19600712
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940726 - 20030722 - 19670713 - 19980715 - 20040806
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA A N OHIO B N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N N OHIO B N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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