984
FXUS01 KWBC 250821
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2023
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 25 2023 - 12Z THU JUL 27 2023
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THEN SHIFTING INTO THE
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE; CRITICAL FIRE
RISK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ATTENDANT FRONTS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE
WITH PLENTY INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOMS
OVER THE DC TO NEW YORK CITY I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. TROUGHING IN THE
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER DAY FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THUS, AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. THIS ENHANCED RISK
AREA WILL BE WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER MUCH OF MICHIGAN,
ILLINOIS, INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. ELSEWHERE, A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AREA IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON DUE TO 15+ MPH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS AND 15-20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL SEND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S AND 100S AND LOWS INTO THE 60S
TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL REPRESENT A 10-20 DEGREE DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL. THE HEAT IN THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE COMING DAYS
WITH MANY PLACES LIKELY TO RIVAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
KEBEDE
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