655
FXUS01 KWBC 251902
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2023
VALID 00Z WED JUL 26 2023 - 00Z FRI JUL 28 2023
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL & SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY AND THE IN THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...
...EXPANSIVE HEAT WAVE TO TAKE HOLD OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK, REACHING THE
EAST COAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE; CRITICAL FIRE
RISK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE CATALYSTS FOR
ROUNDS FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY, IT IS ALREADY RESPONSIBLE
FOR INTENSE STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW
ENGLAND. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE OVER THE I-95 MEGALOPOLIS THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS TO AS FAR NORTH AND EAST
THE NYC METRO AREA. MEANWHILE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
HAS A MORE EXPANSIVE SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT COVERS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA ON NORTH TO CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
NATIONAL CENTERS' SLIGHT RISK AREAS HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING. AS OF 2:30PM EDT, THERE WAS AS MANY
AS 43 MILLION PEOPLE UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM THE
DC/BALTIMORE AREA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TRAVEL DELAYS IN THESE AFFECTED AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AND RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FARTHER WEST, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SET TO PRODUCE
MORE SEVERE WEATHER IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. SPC HAS A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS, NORTHERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. BY THURSDAY, THE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL RACE EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATER
IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, PROMPTING SPC TO ISSUE AN
ENHANCED RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/5) FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, NORTHERN
INDIANA, AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THE SLIGHT RISK CURRENTLY INCLUDES
THE CHICAGO AND CLEVELAND METRO AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE THE MOST CONCERNING MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. WPC ALSO HAS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF MICHIGAN, INCLUDING
THE DETROIT METRO AREA. BY THURSDAY, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
CONTENDING WITH SEVERE STORMS TODAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THERE ARE MARGINAL
RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO DAILY ROUNDS OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS. IN SOUTH
FLORIDA, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK ON THURSDAY AS HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE MORE
POPULATED AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
IN OTHER NEWS, THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH TO CAUSE SIZZLING TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SOAR
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE A
GROWING FOOTPRINT OF 100+ DEGREE HIGHS TAKES HOLD OF THE NATION'S
HEARTLAND. SULTRY HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED
100 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME, EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHILE HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE MORE COMMON IN THE GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
LASTLY, AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES CAUSING UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY IN THESE REGIONS. FARTHER
WEST, THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, PARCHED FUELS, AND LOW RH
VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND THEIR ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT TO
IGNITE ADDITIONAL FIRES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, NORTHWEST
NEVADA, AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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