789
FXUS06 KWBC 251903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 25 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2023
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE
NORTH AMERICAN REGION FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AMONG THE GEFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THAT EXTEND ACROSS
ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
PREDICTED IN TODAY’S MANUAL BLEND TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY’S MANUAL BLEND. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF ECMWF AND GEFS
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, IN PROXIMITY TO NEGATIVE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, WHICH HAS SHOWN GREATER
SKILL OVER THIS REGION THAN THE GEFS REFORECAST TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT
CONSISTENTLY HAS FORECAST WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST WESTERN AREAS OF ALASKA, OUTSIDE
THE FAR NORTH, AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE
PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
SOME AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY, 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST BY THE MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT UNDER A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST, WHERE WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED.
ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST FOR WEEK-2 IS OVERALL
SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE WEEK-2 MANUAL
BLEND DISPLAYS WEAKER ANOMALIES AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY, RELATIVE TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD MANUAL BLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WHILE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN
PROXIMITY TO NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS EASTWARD TO FLORIDA. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
FOLLOWING THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND THE
CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHEAST, UNDER A PERSISTENT TROUGH, DESPITE A WEAKER AMPLITUDE 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECAST.
WITH INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE DOMAIN. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE OF ALASKA, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMIC MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL IS
FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION, WHERE THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
FORECASTS OF WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530724 - 19940726 - 20030722 - 19670713 - 19980716
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030722 - 19940726 - 19980715 - 19530723 - 19670713
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N N OHIO B N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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