470
FXUS01 KWBC 260820
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 12Z WED JUL 26 2023 - 12Z FRI JUL 28 2023
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TODAY THEN THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...HEAT WAVE OVERTAKES MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST; RECORD
BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWEST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA,
FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER MIDWEST, NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WILL PROPAGATE EAST INTO PARTS OF
ILLINOIS, INDIANA, MICHIGAN AND OHIO LATER TODAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO WHERE AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE IN EFFECT. A STRIPE OF 1-2" OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WHERE A LINEAR MCS
COULD PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE, A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WHERE MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SUPERCELLS COULD
CREATE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ABNORMALLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
TODAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS WHERE A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN OVER RELATIVELY MOIST SOILS.
THERE'S ALSO THE THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND THE RISK FOR A TORNADO
ARE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL
FACILITATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL PERPETUATE AN ONGOING RECORD BREAKING HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S TO 110S
AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S TODAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
TREND COOLER ON THURSDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S
AND 100S ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE LOWS IN THE 70S AND 80S IN MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS OFFER LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF. BE SURE TO CONTINUE
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY DURING THIS TIME.
KEBEDE
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