173
FXUS01 KWBC 280754
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2023
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 28 2023 - 12Z SUN JUL 30 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND
SMALLER AREAS OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD
TO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL TWO
INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.
FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
TWO REGIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA, FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY,
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WYOMING,
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE
EVENING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOREOVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BRING HOT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HOT LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS NOT COOLING OFF OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION, MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY HAS REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF
CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DANGEROUS HEAT WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
CAN EXPECT THEIR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN 2023. FURTHER,
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI, AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, INCLUDING ST. LOUIS AND KANSAS CITY, MAY SEE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE DANGEROUS HEAT PEAKS IN THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PROVIDE THESE
REGIONS WITH A WELCOMED RETURN OF COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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