526
FXUS01 KWBC 290803
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2023
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 29 2023 - 12Z MON JUL 31 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A SECOND AREA
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SMALLER AREAS
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/LOWER GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING, EASTERN COLORADO, AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON SUNDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENDS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
REDUCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A
SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHERMORE, ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SECOND AREA
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND HOT LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS NOT COOLING
OFF OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY HAS REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES TO THE
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF CALIFORNIA. A SECOND AREA OF EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO BUILD EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
ZIEGENFELDER
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