625
FXUS01 KWBC 310736
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUL 31 2023 - 12Z WED AUG 02 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FRONT DISSIPATES. ALONG THE WEST END OF THE
BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN
ADDITION, A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE OVER THE REGION.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MOREOVER, A THIRD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. LIKEWISE, THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE OVER
THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF
WITH HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
ALSO, A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM CANADA, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE FLOWING INTO COLORADO
WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION,
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE. SOME
MODERATE RAIN WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO, ON TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE UPPER /MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE OVER THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CREATE HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE RECORD-HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS NOT
COOLING OFF OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EFFECTS
OF HEAT, PROMPTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN ADDITION, A HEAT WAVE
WILL ALSO BUILD EARLY DURING THE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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