737
FXUS01 KWBC 010754
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2023
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 01 2023 - 12Z THU AUG 03 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY;
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALONG THE WEST END OF THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING,
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA, AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND MISSOURI. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, NORTH DAKOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. ALSO,
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, A NEARBY FRONT, AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY
STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, CREATING
SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, CREATING LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID
RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE
WILL AID IN PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF IDAHO, UTAH, AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. A
SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER TWO AREAS, PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CREATE HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE RECORD-HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS NOT
COOLING OFF OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EFFECTS
OF HEAT, PROMPTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN ADDITION, A HEAT WAVE
WILL ALSO BUILD EARLY DURING THE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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