022
FXUS01 KWBC 011936
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2023
VALID 00Z WED AUG 02 2023 - 00Z FRI AUG 04 2023
...THE HEAT GOES ON FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF COAST...
...A FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
INTO TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THIS
FEATURE, KEEPING THE HEAT GOING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN
GULF COAST. ACROSS THESE AREAS, TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHEN THIS IS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING HEAT
INDICES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS.
CURRENTLY EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES STRETCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS, WITH NO IMMEDIATE END IN SIGHT TO
THESE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WHILE
PHOENIX ARIZONA SAW AN END TO THE RECORD STREAK OF 110 DEGREE F+
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, A NEW STREAK WILL LIKELY BEGIN BY
MID-WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
RIDING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND IN THE
VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES
RECORDED. WITH NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, ADDITIONAL
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. THIS HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SINK FARTHER SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE, ABOVE
AVERAGE MONSOONAL MOISTURE VALUES COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ORAVEC
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