207
FXUS01 KWBC 020801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2023
VALID 12Z WED AUG 02 2023 - 12Z FRI AUG 04 2023
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER
PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
ALONG WITH TWO AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AIDED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A
STATIONARY FRONT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER
RIVERS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
IDAHO, UTAH, WYOMING, AND A SMALL PART OF COLORADO. THEREFORE,
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY,
THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
ON THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A WEAK FRONT NEARBY WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING, WESTERN NEBRASKA, NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ANOTHER AREA OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER TWO REGIONS, PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THE SECOND AREA OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, THE AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD AND DECREASES SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, A NEARBY FRONT AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CREATE HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE RECORD-HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS NOT
COOLING OFF OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EFFECTS
OF HEAT, PROMPTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST.
IN ADDITION, THE DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OVER 110 F
EXPANDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDWEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT SEVERAL NEW RECORD-WARM NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG
WITH OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING THE DAY. IT IS ESSENTIAL
TO HAVE WAYS TO COOL DOWN AND LIMIT YOUR HEAT EXPOSURE. THESE
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL POSE A HEALTH RISK TO THOSE
WITHOUT AN EFFECTIVE COOLING METHOD AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. BE
SURE TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
ZIEGENFELDER
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