865
FXUS01 KWBC 040801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 04 2023 - 12Z SUN AUG 06 2023
...PERSISTENT HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND...
...ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA FOR SATURDAY...
...STORMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LONG-LIVED RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION FROM PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
BENEATH IT AND ENSURE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE SOUTH. ANOTHER DAY OF POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
ARE IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN TEXAS, CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 110 DEGREES DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR THESE SAME
LOCATIONS BUT A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO KANSAS, MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA FOR SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM MONTANA AND WYOMING
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGH RAINFALL
RATES, LEADING TO AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL, IN THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE FROM THE
NATION'S HEARTLAND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page