251
FXUS01 KWBC 041954
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 00Z SAT AUG 05 2023 - 00Z MON AUG 07 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
INTO THE MIDWEST...
A LONG-LIVED RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION FROM PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE OPPRESSIVE AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS, AND THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THIS HEAT WAVE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE HEAT STRESS AND IMPACTS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 110
DEGREES DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS
ENTIRE REGION, THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND LIKELY BEYOND, PER LATEST FORECASTS FROM WPC AND CPC. A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RELIEF,
HOWEVER, TO PARTS OF KANSAS, MISSOURI, AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE REGIONS WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING A
SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF WYOMING/MONTANA AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THE RISK SHIFTS EAST INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WHERE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE ERO.
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S./MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY, INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN SATURDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FLASH FLOODING AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS MUCH OF THIS
REGION HAS ALREADY SEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL RECENTLY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND.
SANTORELLI
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