510
FXUS01 KWBC 050810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2023
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 05 2023 - 12Z MON AUG 07 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT RELIEF FOR SOME IS COMING
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING FROM
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW
TO MID-100S TODAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110 TO 115 GIVEN
HIGH HUMIDITY IN PLACE. SIMILAR HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WILL SUPPORT MORE OF A DRY HEAT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 105 AND LOCALLY
OVER 110 FOR A FEW LOCATIONS.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. HEAT WAVE WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A FOCUS FOR
WIND AND HAIL FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY/TONIGHT. ONE OF THE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA AND
MINNESOTA. A DUAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY
NEAR AN EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE. FARTHER SOUTH NEAR A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THREATS OF
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY,
TRANSLATING THE THREATS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE ACCOMPANYING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SWEEP INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW 90 DEGREES
FOR MANY ACROSS OKLAHOMA, KANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR THESE
NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
TEXAS, LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AS WELL AS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page