540
FXUS01 KWBC 051946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2023
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 06 2023 - 00Z TUE AUG 08 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND..
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE EAST...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW
TO MID-100S TODAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110 TO 115 GIVEN
HIGH HUMIDITY IN PLACE. SIMILAR HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WILL SUPPORT MORE OF A DRY HEAT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 105 AND LOCALLY
OVER 110 FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS CURRENT
HEAT DOME MAY FINALLY GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT AFTER TODAY
THOUGH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HEAT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES THOUGH MAY LAST WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK, AND POSSIBLY BEYOND PER THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM WPC AND
CPC.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ARE MOST
FAVORED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE TO THE NORTH, ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE NEAR A SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA. BY TOMORROW THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE
MIDWEST, AND THEN EVENTUALLY PARTS OF THE EAST BY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
WELL.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO WHERE WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND WESTERN TEXAS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND TOO.
SANTORELLI
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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