394
FXUS01 KWBC 070800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 12Z MON AUG 07 2023 - 12Z WED AUG 09 2023
...INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
TODAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS INTO MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S...
...RECORD HEAT EXPECTED FROM TEXAS, EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN TEXAS AND
AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...
A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST TODAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TODAY, SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, CONTAINING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, LARGE
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR ALL OF THESE
HAZARDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BUT THE
SEVERE STORM AND FLASH FLOOD THREATS WILL EXTEND ACROSS A BROAD
REGION COVERING THE UPPER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT THEY
MOVE TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS,
MAXIMIZING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, POSING AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OREGON WHERE FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, FLASH FLOODING
AND/OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE SOUTH, DANGEROUSLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
SET UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS, EXTENDING EASTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
AGAIN FROM WESTERN TEXAS, EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE
100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 115 WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY
AND TUESDAY FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
OR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST, ROUGHLY FROM I-20 SOUTHWARD (LOCATIONS EAST OF MIDLAND,
TX), OR NEAR I-10 FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
IN ADDITION TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO TEXAS. DRY
GROUND CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page