772
FXUS01 KWBC 071925
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 00Z TUE AUG 08 2023 - 00Z THU AUG 10 2023
...VERY ACTIVE EAST COAST WEATHER LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MONDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINS AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK STATE
INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND A FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO AND LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...
...RECORD HEAT TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND INTO FLORIDA...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...
SEVERAL AREAS OF THE NATION WILL EXPERIENCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS. A STRONG FRONT PUSHING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI IS HELPING TO FUEL A LARGE REGION OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANOMALOUSLY LARGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE EMPHASIS FOR HEAVY RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN U.S. STRONG FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW
ENGLAND. AT THE MOMENT, IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE LESS FOR THIS REGION COMPARED TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE THAN
ONE ROUND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO
AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
WHILE HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S., THE UNRELENTING HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER
OF 2023 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
INTO FLORIDA. MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS SEEN RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
PAST WEEKEND. THIS RECORD POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE NATION AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
AS THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT TO THE CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THAT IS DRIVING THIS HEAT WAVE.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, A FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
IN CONTRAST TO THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION, COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.
ORAVEC
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