367
FXUS01 KWBC 081905
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2023
VALID 00Z WED AUG 09 2023 - 00Z FRI AUG 11 2023
...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS TO FOCUS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON WEDNESDAY...
...RECORD HEAT TO CONTINUE FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND INTO FLORIDA...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND TEXAS TODAY, LINGERING FOR TEXAS INTO
WEDNESDAY...
A SLOW MOVING AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO MAINE WHERE ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, LOCALLY
HIGHER. HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS AND
AREAS THAT ARE USUALLY PRONE TO FLOODING. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY LINGER OVER MAINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER AREA FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING/COLORADO INTO THE PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INTENSIFYING AS THEY MEET WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL
EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FAIRLY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE THE CONTINUED LONG-LIVED HEAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION, EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA.
MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS SEEN RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
RECORD HIGH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RECORDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF WEEK. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION WITH EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 115, LOCALLY
HIGHER POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, A FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AS
WELL AS CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TODAY. A CRITICAL RISK IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THESE TWO REGIONS TODAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
IN CONTRAST TO THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION, COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page