250
FXUS01 KWBC 081915
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2023
VALID 00Z WED AUG 09 2023 - 00Z FRI AUG 11 2023
...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS TO FOCUS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY...
...RECORD HEAT TO CONTINUE FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND INTO FLORIDA...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND TEXAS TODAY, LINGERING FOR TEXAS INTO
WEDNESDAY...
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK/SOUTHERN CANADA. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW NORTHWARD INCREASING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT, NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO CENTRAL MAINE WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
RIVERS, CREEKS AND AREAS THAT ARE USUALLY PRONE TO FLOODING. WHILE
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER OVER MAINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FEATURE PLEASANT
WEATHER AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND WYOMING TO MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM SEVERITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS AS THEY MEET WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN; ALTHOUGH THERE POTENTIAL FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE LONG-LIVED HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF
COAST AND INTO FLORIDA WILL PERSIST. NUMEROUS DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET THIS PAST WEEK AND A FEW MORE ARE WITHIN
GRASP IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WITH EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105
TO 115, LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THIS HOT AND DRY STRETCH. SPC
HAS IDENTIFIED TWO AREAS TODAY WITH A CRITICAL RISK- THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. A COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
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