077
FXUS01 KWBC 092001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2023
VALID 00Z THU AUG 10 2023 - 00Z SAT AUG 12 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS TO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTH, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TO
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES, POSSIBLY CLIMBING ABOVE 110F IN SOME
LOCATIONS. OPPRESSIVE DAYTIME HEAT, LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING, AND
WIDESPREAD RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT
HEALTH RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND
ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS TO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON THURSDAY.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVING OUT AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THE FOCUS OF THIS CROSSING THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-SOUTH AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY ON THURSDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE -- PRODUCING HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT AS WELL,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
OVER THE CAROLINAS, EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS ON THURSDAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY
SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THIS AREA AND GRADUALLY ADVANCES TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS COULD IMPACT THE
GREATER NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE THIS LOW CENTER PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS NEAR A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME OF THESE
AREAS.
IN THE WEST, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEASONAL TO BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, BEFORE EXPANDING INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ORRISON/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page