913
FXUS01 KWBC 102001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2023
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 11 2023 - 00Z SUN AUG 13 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE
HEAVY RAIN COULD IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...
...ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IMPACTING MANY AREAS OF THE EAST GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SETTLES ALSO DOWN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS, AND THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONCERNING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS, SOME LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AND THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SEPARATE
CONCERN FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR AREAS
OF THE MID-SOUTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OUT
AND BECOMES A FOCUS FOR NEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN TO THE
SOUTH, BUT A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
MEANWHILE, A NEW STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVANCING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS DEPICTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS EVENING INCLUDING PARTS
OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND THEN MORE
BROADLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY INCLUDING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, WITH ALL OF THESE
AREAS SEEING A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO.
ACROSS THE SOUTH, HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TO
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES, POSSIBLY CLIMBING
ABOVE 110F IN SOME LOCATIONS. OPPRESSIVE DAYTIME HEAT, LIMITED
OVERNIGHT COOLING, AND WIDESPREAD RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HEALTH RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED. FOR AREAS A BIT FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST TEXAS, HOT
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
ORRISON/KONG
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