789
FXUS01 KWBC 161956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2023
VALID 00Z THU AUG 17 2023 - 00Z SAT AUG 19 2023
...HOT/RECORD TEMPERATURES TO SHIFT FOCUS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
STARTING THURSDAY, COALESCING OVER TEXAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
MONTANA THURSDAY...
...SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
THE LONG-IN-THE-TOOTH HEAT WAVE WILL REFOCUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY
COOL BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-AUGUST TEMPERATURES. THE RECENT HOT
WEATHER HAS EXACERBATED THE DRY CONDITIONS, AND AN INCREASE IN
WIND ON THURSDAY SUPPORTS A CRITICAL FIRE AREA OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND NORTHERN MONTANA. TO THE EAST, WIDESPREAD 90S TO 100S
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. RAINFALL
WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS AROUND THE HEAT DOME; NAMELY, THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE INTERIOR WEST
(GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION). MANY AREAS OVER TEXAS WILL SEE
RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES 100-110F WITH HEAT
INDICES OVER 110F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM AND AT
SIMILARLY HIGH RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS. THE DURATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE HEAT IS LEADING TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH RISK
TO THE REGION THAN TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE AIR CONDITIONING. PLEASE SEE WPC'S HEAT KEY
MESSAGES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE HEAT WAVE.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST,
WITH A FOCUS ON NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND
80S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST SPOT
RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN READINGS BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO DECAY.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO DAILY, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR MORE
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, DRY WASHES,
AND SLOT CANYONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BROADLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S ALONG COASTAL CALIFORNIA,
THE MID-80S IN THE PRECIPITATION-COOLED FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND
LOW TO MID-90S FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.
THE CA CENTRAL VALLEY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW 100S ON THURSDAY BEFORE A COOLDOWN BACK INTO THE 90S
FOR FRIDAY.
FRACASSO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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