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FXUS01 KWBC 182001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2023
VALID 00Z SAT AUG 19 2023 - 00Z MON AUG 21 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...
..DANGEROUS HEAT REDEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S..
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF HURRICANE HILARY WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL (~1IN.) WILL OCCUR ALONG THE U.S. MEXICO BORDER,
BUT RAIN-SENSITIVE AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY LIGHTER AMOUNTS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA/UTAH AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY BEGIN TO
RAMP UP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A MODERATE RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, PARTS OF WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER SENSITIVE
BURN SCARS, ELEVATED TERRAIN AND SLOT CANYONS. WINDS AND RAIN
RATES WILL INTENSIFY MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY, WHEN THE BRUNT OF THE STORM'S DAMAGE IS
EXPECTED. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NUMEROUS DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TEXAS. THE HEAT WAVE WILL FURTHER EXPAND ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO TINCLUDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S.. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MIDWEST MAY SEE THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO
FAR THIS WEEKEND, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND GULF
COAST MAY FURTHER EXTEND THEIR RECORD NUMBER OF HOURS WITH A HEAT
INDEX READING OF AT LEASWT 110F DEGREES. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF
THE HEAT WAVE COMBINED WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE DAYTIME HEAT AND COMPOUND OVERALL
HEAT IMPACTS.
KEBEDE
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