982
FXUS01 KWBC 251935
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2023
VALID 00Z SAT AUG 26 2023 - 00Z MON AUG 28 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES FROM THE MIDWEST TO GULF COAST, WITH
HEAT RELIEF EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...
WIDESPREAD HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SET TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE WEAKENS AND RETREATS TOWARD
THE WEST. HOWEVER, POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 90 TO 100F+ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. TODAY, WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ACCOMPANYING THIS HEAT.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OF 100 TO 110+F, WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING HEAT INDICES
OF 120F. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., LIMITING
NIGHTTIME HEAT RELIEF. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS - HAVE A WAY TO BREAK YOUR HEAT EXPOSURE,
COOL DOWN, AND STAY HYDRATED. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE HEAT GRADUALLY WEAKENS, A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S., CONCENTRATING THE HEAT TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY'S HIGHS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT HEAT
RELIEF IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY (ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HAROLD) MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY IN ADDITION TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE
ABLE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 1"/HR, WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1-2" IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
OVER BURN SCARS. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING, AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST, RESULTING IN SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. MARGINAL RISKS FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MARGINAL RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN EFFECT ALONG SCATTERED PORTIONS OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
AS WELL AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WEST. HOWEVER, THIS HEAT WILL BE LESS
INTENSE THAN THE HEAT THE REGION HAS RECENTLY SEEN, AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. A COLD FRONT IS SET TO ENTER THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.
GENZ
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page