284
FXUS01 KWBC 262012
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2023
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 27 2023 - 00Z TUE AUG 29 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MIGRATING FROM OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHEAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN ROUGHLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND MINIMAL THREAT OF HAIL AND TORNADOES.
ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, ON SUNDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, MINOR THREAT OF HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, ON MONDAY,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ELSEWHERE, WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS
PROMPTED AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT INTO MEXICO BY MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL CREATE
OPPRESSIVE DAYTIME HEAT AND LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING, WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EFFECTS OF HEAT, PROMPTING EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION, THE DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.
EXTREME HEAT AND A LACK OF OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL UNFORTUNATELY
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
HEAT OF THIS INTENSITY POSES A HEALTH RISK TO EVERYONE WITH
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS †HAVE A WAY TO BREAK
YOUR HEAT EXPOSURE, COOL DOWN, AND STAY HYDRATED! FOLLOWING A
BRIEF REPRIEVE, DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.
LASTLY, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT MAY MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE WEEK.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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