426
FXUS01 KWBC 272002
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2023
VALID 00Z MON AUG 28 2023 - 00Z WED AUG 30 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...TROPICAL STORM IDALIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN ROUGHLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, ON MONDAY,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
GENERALLY, ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, ON
TUESDAY, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ELSEWHERE, WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS
PROMPTED AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOREOVER, A FRONT DEVELOPS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT INTO MEXICO AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CREATE OPPRESSIVE DAYTIME HEAT AND LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING,
WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EFFECTS OF HEAT, PROMPTING
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION, THE DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. EXTREME
HEAT AND A LACK OF OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL UNFORTUNATELY PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. THE HEAT OF THIS
INTENSITY POSES A HEALTH RISK TO EVERYONE WITH EFFECTIVE COOLING
AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS †HAVE A WAY TO BREAK YOUR HEAT EXPOSURE,
COOL DOWN, AND STAY HYDRATED! FOLLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE,
DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
LASTLY, TROPICAL STORM IDALIA, NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CHECK THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR IDALIA S MOST CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. BY TUESDAY,
IDALIA IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO STREAM TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, ON TUESDAY, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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