511
FXUS01 KWBC 280820
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
419 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2023
VALID 12Z MON AUG 28 2023 - 12Z WED AUG 30 2023
...TROPICAL STORM IDALIA TO IMPACT MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY...
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO COOL DOWN WHILE SOUTHWEST
EXPERIENCES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE
AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE,
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF FLORIDA'S WEST COAST BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS COULD
RECEIVE 4-8 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY NEAR
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PART OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS,
AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IDALIA GO TO HURRICANES.GOV.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND UP
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ROUNDS
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TODAY. A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA, WHERE
CONVECTION ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
COULD POSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
1-2IN/HR. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON TUESDAY AS PARTS OF THE AFORMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.
A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STATIONED OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND COME ASHORE ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL DROP IN RESPONSE TO THIS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
KEBEDE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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