613
FXUS01 KWBC 282007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2023
VALID 00Z TUE AUG 29 2023 - 00Z THU AUG 31 2023
...TROPICAL STORM IDALIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY
EVENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION, IDALIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NATURE
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHECK THE LATEST ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR IDALIA S MOST CURRENT TRACK
AND STRENGTH.
ON TUESDAY, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDALIA WILL BEGIN TO CREATE
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST OF FLORIDA. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
IDALIA OVER PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IDALIA WILL EXPAND
INTO MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH IDALIA OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS
MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
MOREOVER, ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IDALIA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOME LIGHTNING, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, A FEW
TORNADOES, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF HAIL.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
INUNDATION ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A STORM
SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA. AN INUNDATION OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CHASSAHOWITZKA AND AUCILLA
RIVER.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ANY ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES
ONSHORE. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF IDALIA. AREAS OF
FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
AND MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS
LANDSLIDES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA.
MEANWHILE, ON MONDAY, A QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL FOCUS TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
GENERALLY, ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST STATES
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS
PROMPTED AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOREOVER, A FRONT DEVELOPS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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