902
FXUS01 KWBC 290826
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2023
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 29 2023 - 12Z THU AUG 31 2023
...TROPICAL STORM IDALIA TO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...
...NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS EXPERIENCE A COOL
DOWN...
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE
TODAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN
ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH
IDALIA WILL BE EXPERIENCED ALONG THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA'S
GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WHERE THE FLASH FLOODING,
SEVERE WEATHER, WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS ARE THE GREATEST. A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FLASH FLOODING THREATS
SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IDALIA
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
LARGER MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS WHERE 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. UP TO
12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY NEAR LANDFALL IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED SLIGHT
RISKS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
CAROLINA COAST WHERE THERE'S A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE INUNDATION ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. HURRICANE, FLASH FLOOD AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ETC.
ARE ALL IN EFFECT ALONG FLORIDA'S GULF COAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON IDALIA, PLEASE GO TO HURRICANES.GOV.
MEANWHILE, A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF STREAMS NORTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY.
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OUT INTO THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
PIEDMONT REGIONS. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR THOSE REGIONS. THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
KEBEDE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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