159
FXUS01 KWBC 291947
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2023
VALID 00Z WED AUG 30 2023 - 00Z FRI SEP 01 2023
...HURRICANE IDALIA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDALIA EXTENDS
INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING CHANCES ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
OUTER RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE IDALIA, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO
TREK NORTH ON A PATH TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION AND NATURE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IDALIA IS
ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS TIMEFRAME
AND PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS FROM STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES FROM AUCILLA RIVER TO YANKEETOWN, FLORIDA. LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE INUNDATION IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONALLY, DESTRUCTIVE AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CORE OF IDALIA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR THE CENTER
OF IDALIA. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD PRODUCE DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY IDALIA AS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL LOCATION IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS MAY LEAD LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH, URBAN, AND
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA,
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MEANWHILE,
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANKING RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES FROM WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A WEAKENING IDALIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE
EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINAS. HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF IDALIA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR
CONGEALING TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY
FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HERE, A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH IDALIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SURF CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY.
TO THE NORTH OF IDALIA AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WILL HELP STEER
IDALIA OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE, WHILE ALSO
USHERING IN COMFORTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-TO-LOW 70S.
ELSEWHERE, A POTENT COLD FRONT COULD SPARK THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FROM NORTHERN WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN IDAHO.
SUMMER CONTINUES TO SOAR THROUGHOUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL ALSO BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE
COOLER PACIFIC WATERS. THE OTHER HOT SPOT IN THE LOWER 48 WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK ARE ANTICIPATED.
SNELL
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