145
FXUS01 KWBC 300801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2023
VALID 12Z WED AUG 30 2023 - 12Z FRI SEP 01 2023
...HURRICANE IDALIA WILL BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA'S NORTHERN GULF COAST
TODAY...
...AREAS OF FLASH, URBAN AND MODERATE RIVER FLOODING, WITH
CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS, ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THURSDAY...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY...
HURRICANE IDALIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS MORNING AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE. CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS FROM STORM SURGE INUNDATION
OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN THE WAKULLA/JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE AND YANKEETOWN,
FLORIDA. LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE INUNDATION IS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST, WHERE A STORM
SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW
ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE LIFE-THREATENING WINDS WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES
ONSHORE IN THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA, WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF IDALIA WHERE HURRICANE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
LONG-DURATION POWER OUTAGES. DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONALLY, IDALIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA UP TO 12 INCHES FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, AND
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, A HIGH
END MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
IS IN EFFECT FOR A SWATH EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA'S BIG BEND REGION
TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY
AS IDALIA PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL
BE ENHANCED BY TERRAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON/IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING EXCESSIVE
HEAT THREATS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN OVER
THE WEST WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL IN-TURN LEAD TO INCREASED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONCERNS OVER THE AREA HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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