561
FXUS01 KWBC 301924
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2023
VALID 00Z THU AUG 31 2023 - 00Z SAT SEP 02 2023
...HURRICANE IDALIA TO CONTINUE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAT WAVE TO ORIGINATE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, THEN SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND FOR LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY; RESURGENCE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK...
AFTER MAKING ITS HISTORIC LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND NEAR KEATON BEACH EARLIER THIS MORNING, HURRICANE IDALIA
IS TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRODUCING A PLETHORA OF HAZARDS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THAT
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND INLAND
FLOODING, SEVERE STORMS, BATTERING WAVES, AND COASTAL STORM SURGE.
THE INLAND FLOOD THREAT IS GREATEST FROM SOUTHEAST GA ON NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN SC AND SOUTHERN NC WHERE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE
RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) POSTED AN ENHANCED RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/5)
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT TO EVEN CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE,
INCLUDING POWER OUTAGES, EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE, AND FLOODED ROADS.
COASTAL AREAS FROM NORTHERN FL TO THE NC OUTER BANKS CAN EXPECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1-4FT OF STORM SURGE TROUGH TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, IDALIA WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST,
POUNDING THE COAST OF NC WITH MORE BATTERING WAVES, STORM SURGE,
AND SOAKING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL.
WPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OVER EASTERN NC WHILE THE MARGINAL
RISK EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS I-95 IN CENTRAL NC. RAINFALL RATES
WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
IDALIA TRACKS FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT BLUSTERY
WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND SOME RESIDUAL STORM SURGE TO LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
IN OTHER NEWS, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE HEADLINED BY
THE BEGINNING OF YET ANOTHER HEAT WAVE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE 90S IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SURPASSING THE
CENTURY MARK. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ONLY GROW HOTTER THROUGHOUT
THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EXPANSION OF STIFLING HEAT SETS THE STAGE
FOR WHAT WILL BE A SIZZLING LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE
NATION'S HEARTLAND. IN CONTRAST, THE EAST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE
SEASONALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT
USHERS IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE THE REST OF THE WEST COAST
ON FRIDAY.
IDALIA IS NOT THE ONLY SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. WPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. IN THE WEST, AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE HEARTLAND WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PUMP ADDITIONAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY, BUT THE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK IN SOUTHERN UT, SOUTHERN NV, AND CENTRAL AZ ON
FRIDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF NORTHERN CA AND CENTRAL OR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MULLINAX
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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