124
FXUS01 KWBC 310742
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2023
VALID 12Z THU AUG 31 2023 - 12Z SAT SEP 02 2023
...TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY...
...HEAT WAVE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND FLORIDA'S
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. AREAS OF FLASH, URBAN AND MODERATE
RIVER FLOODING, WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS, ARE EXPECTED FROM
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER BANKS WITH AN EMBEDDED
MODERATE RISK IN THERE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OBX. COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE STORM SURGE WATCH AREA IN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL USHER IN A COOLER
AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. CONVERSELY, THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A HEAT WAVE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S FOR MANY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD HIGH AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN, WITH SOME
PLACES APPROACHING THEIR ALL-TIME HOTTEST SEPTEMBER RECORDS. THIS
HEAT WAVE WILL POSE A HEALTH RISK TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING/HYDRATION. TAKE THIS HEAT SERIOUSLY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO SPEND TIME OUTSIDE DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
PARTICIPATE IN EARLY SCHOOL YEAR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S PAIRD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR A BEATIFUL INTRODUCTION TO THE
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEKEND, THROUGH LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES LIKELY.
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST TROUGH
AND EXPANDING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TODAY, WHEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRE HOSE OPENS UP ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT FOR
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN UTAH. UP TO AN 1.5" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE A NUMBER
OF VULNERABLE SLOT CANYONS ARE LOCATED. ELSEWHERE, A STATIONARY
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT AND PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.
KEBEDE
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