822
FXUS01 KWBC 311950
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2023
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 01 2023 - 00Z SUN SEP 03 2023
...TROPICAL STORM IDALIA TO CONTINUE TRACKING WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...
...HEAT WAVE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND FLORIDA'S
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THIS AFTERNOON
FARTHER AND FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IDALIA'S WESTERN
FLANK IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS, HIGH
SURF, AND PERIODS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC, BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AND SHOWERS PUSH
OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY, THE ONLY LINGERING
AFFECTS FROM IDALIA WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WINDS.
AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS OVER TO SEPTEMBER, SIGNALING THE BEGIN OF
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN, THE TOP STORY WILL BE HOW TEMPERATURES FEEL
LIKE ANYTHING BUT AUTUMN IN THE NATION'S HEARTLAND. THIS IS DUE TO
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT ALLOWS FOR
INCREASINGLY HOT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TODAY'S FOOTPRINT OF 90S-LOW 100S HIGH TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT DOME ON SATURDAY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING FOR AN EVEN LARGER AREAL
EXTENT FOR 90S-LOW 100S HIGH TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE HEARTLAND.
RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE GREAT
PLAINS, AS WELL AS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SATURDAY. THIS REGIME OF SIZZLING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SPILL
OVER INTO THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AND EVENTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC FOR LABOR DAY.
IN CONTRAST, THE WEST COAST WILL BE MIRED IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
USHERING IN DAYTIME HIGHS THAT RANGE BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO WORK IN CONCERT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HEARTLAND TO DELIVER MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL
2/4) IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SPECIFICALLY IN PARTS OF ARIZONA,
SOUTHERN UTAH, AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, AS EVIDENCE BY THE MARGINAL
RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 1/5) ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN DRY WASHES AND SPOTS FEATURING
SENSITIVE SOILS.
FARTHER EAST, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR DAILY
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND INTO FLORIDA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY, WHERE THEY REMAIN
QUITE SENSITIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN WAKE OF IDALIA. ON THE FLIP
SIDE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
REMAINDER OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR AVERAGE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MULLINAX
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