421
FXUS01 KWBC 031939
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2023
VALID 00Z MON SEP 04 2023 - 00Z WED SEP 06 2023
...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...
...UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S., WITH RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE...
A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFTING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE REGION WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4)
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE RISK OF SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR MORE
SENSITIVE REGIONS SUCH AS BURN SCARS, DRY WASHES, AND URBAN AREAS.
THE THREAT SHIFTS EASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
HIGHS MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND COASTAL CALIFORNIA,
WITH 80S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND 90S FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS MODERATE.
TO THE EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY
HOT FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. IN WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A
BRUTALLY HOT SUMMER, HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S FOR TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE
INTO THE MID-90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH LOW 90S
FORECAST FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE FOCUS WILL STILL
BE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WHERE THE
GREATEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE RESIDED. HIGHS WILL BE INTO
THE UPPER 90S ON MONDAY, WITH MANY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS
POSSIBLE. HEAT OF THIS MAGNITUDE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL POSE A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEALTH RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT BE
OUTDOORS FOR THE HOLIDAY AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AVAILABLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BY AS MUCH AS
20-30 DEGREES, WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT RELIEF WILL COME FOR MUCH OF THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-WAVE OVER THE WEST PUSHES
EAST AND HELPS TO DRIVE A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTO THE REGION.
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH BY TUESDAY
MORNING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE BROADLY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE HOT WEATHER HAS ALSO MADE A RETURN TO THE EAST COAST. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-80S IN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND MID- TO
UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. MANY NEAR
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, THE
SOUTHEAST, AND FLORIDA WILL BE HOT BUT MORE SEASONABLE COMPARED TO
OTHER CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S.
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