667
FXUS01 KWBC 040729
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2023
VALID 12Z MON SEP 04 2023 - 12Z WED SEP 06 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE ARE HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA, NORTHERN WYOMING, SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, NARROW
CRAYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA,
NORTHERN MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AS THE FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA,
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT
LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AID IN
CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PROMOTE HOT
TEMPERATURES, PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES ALSO CREEP INTO THE NORTHEAST AS
PART OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREEPS INTO THE NORTHEAST. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC, ALLOWING HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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