927
FXUS01 KWBC 081823
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2023
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 09 2023 - 00Z MON SEP 11 2023
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,
MID ATLANTIC, AND FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS ...
...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE ABATING ACROSS NORTHEAST TODAY BUT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST...
...INCREASING CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXTREME
HEAT THAT HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC HAS
PUSHED MORE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A SEGMENT OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
REMAINING UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S) AND HIGH HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA BECOMING A BIT MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND EVEN PENINSULAR FLORIDA WHERE
MARGINAL RISKS ARE POSTED. A FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY BE INTENSE
ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
SLOPED TERRAIN FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF
TN/NC.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PRODUCE WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THOSE MAY BE VERY SLOW MOVING
PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT
PIEDMONT AND MAY INDUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THOSE AREAS WHILE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST FROM GA TO ME. BY SUNDAY, THE RISK
WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AND MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
FURTHER SOUTH, THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DIG TOWARD THE GULF COAST,
BUT LIFT NORTHWARD TO A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. VERY HIGH HEAT AND SOME POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN RED RIVER THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
IN EASTERN TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL RESULT IN HIGH UNSTABLE
AIR CAPABLE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
AS SUCH, SPC HAS HOISTED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. EXTREME HEAT OVER 100-110F WILL EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS WITH MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BEING
UNDER EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS. A RESPITE IS COMING AS THE LOW AND
FRONTAL ZONE SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/HEAT DOME STARTS TO SLIDE WESTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST; TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE PECOS/RIO GRANDE RIVER, BUT ONLY IN THE
UPPER 90S/LOW 100S OR ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NOT THE
15-25 SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY SUNDAY, WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS, BUT WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY AS CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE A BIT BETTER WITH SLOWER CELL
MOTIONS AND POSSIBLE REPEATING CELLS. GIVEN INTENSE RATES OVER
DRY/HARD GROUND CONDITIONS SEEING ABOVE NORMAL RUNOFF AND SPOTS OF
FLASH FLOODING.
IT IS THAT COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN FRESHER, COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY EXPANDING ACROSS E
WYOMING/NEBRASKA INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S OR ABOVE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THE EXPANSION OF THE HEAT DOME INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO DANGEROUS CATEGORIES BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. AS SUCH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA HAVE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ISSUED THIS
WEEKEND, WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE 110S.
GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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