205
FXUS01 KWBC 100803
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2023
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 10 2023 - 12Z TUE SEP 12 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT TO PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO STEADILY FALL EARLY
THIS WEEK...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY REACH
RECORD LEVELS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA,
INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO, WHERE A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 110F IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START DECREASING
BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA SUPPORTS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL TO BELOW-NORMAL, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY, BEFORE REACHING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
CENTER NEAR WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, WITH SPC
HIGHLIGHTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND WPC NOTING THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER
SOUTH NEAR THE TRAILING END OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
IN THE EAST, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO CENTER FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO NEW ENGLAND.
PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page