124
FXUS01 KWBC 110817
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2023
VALID 12Z MON SEP 11 2023 - 12Z WED SEP 13 2023
...DECREASING TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL
REMAIN-ABOVE NORMAL, BUT BEGIN TO COOL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT RECORD-BREAKING HEAT RETREATS SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE, WITH
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA, WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WHICH MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT HELP TO
FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW-MOVING AND FUELED BY AMPLE
MOISTURE, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
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