455
FXUS01 KWBC 120825
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2023
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 12 2023 - 12Z THU SEP 14 2023
...COOL, WET WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...MORE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST....
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST...
COOL, WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MEANWHILE, INCREASING
MOISTURE, INCLUDING REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS TROPICAL
CYCLONE JOVA, IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN VULNERABLE AREAS WHERE RAPID RUNOFF IS LIKELY. A
GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY, BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINS THAT DO OCCUR MAY PRODUCE FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVY AMOUNTS EARLIER THIS
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP NEAR FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING -- PROMPTING FROST ADVISORIES
FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH HURRICANE LEE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE, DANGEROUS SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST. AS THE STORM TURNS NORTH, THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
PEREIRA
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