767
FXUS01 KWBC 132006
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2023
VALID 00Z THU SEP 14 2023 - 00Z SAT SEP 16 2023
....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIVE A SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS; IMPACTS FROM LEE TO
ARRIVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING FRIDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES,
SHOWERS, AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE NORTH OF A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOW
GRADUALLY EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
INTERACT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SOME OF WHICH PROMPTED A FEW
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS EARLIER TODAY. THIS STORMY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE REGION, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TOMORROW.
RAINFALL ASIDE, THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A WARM AND DRY
TREND SETS IN SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, FLOOD WATCHES
EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE, WHERE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HOUR WITHIN THE TRAINING ACTIVITY
COULD QUICKLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AS SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALSO ALONG THE EAST COAST -- EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE LEE REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE, THE STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF
THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LEE BEGINS TO
APPROACH PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA LATER THIS WEEK,
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN
IMPACTS FROM LEE IN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INTERESTED PARTIES ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REFER TO NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR FORECAST UPDATES ON LEE.
ASHERMAN/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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