203
FXUS01 KWBC 160759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2023
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 16 2023 - 12Z MON SEP 18 2023
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS
HURRICANE LEE TRACKS BY...
...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CRITICAL RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY...
HURRICANE LEE CONTINUES NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH THE CENTER
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WHILE THE
CENTER OF LEE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND, THE LARGE
SIZE OF THE STORM HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO IMPACTS WELL
DISPLACED FROM THE STORM'S CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. DOWNED TREES AND AND POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST PARTICULARLY
FOR DOWNEAST MAINE, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING. DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL BROADLY FOR NEW
ENGLAND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGER SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MID- TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AS LEE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND IN THE
VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
FLORIDA WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EASTWARD SUNDAY BRINGING LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST WHILE HELPING TO FOCUS RAIN
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE BROADLY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH 60S
AND 70S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, 70S AND 80S
FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND 80S
AND LOW 90S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST.
THE WEST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH 80S AND
LOW 90S EXPECTED. GUSTY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS
HAVE PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN MONTANA ON SATURDAY, WITH AN
ELEVATED RISK (LEVEL 1/3) FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
AVERAGE, WITH 60S AND 70S FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA, 80S FOR THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND GREAT BASIN, AND 90S TO LOW 100S
FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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